GOMSpace announced its high revenue Indonesia project last year in December. The project is contingent upon government-to-government financing but if it closes, GOMSpace will supply 20 satellites and software for earth observation, RF monitoring, and VDES for €59m. This potential revenue represents 3x GOMSpace’s 2023 annual revenue. GOMSpace stock rose over 3X in December 2023 and has hovered around the same value ever since. The current stock price appears supported by the Indonesia deal finalizing. GOMSpace initially forecasted financing to close in 1Q 2024.
1Q 2024 came and went without GOMSpace’s Indonesia financing closing. Now on September 30th, GOMspace announced they are still waiting on the financing. GOMspace stock dropped 10% on the news. From the beginning, GOMspace warned: “The contract is contingent upon a government-to-government financing agreement and until such time that a financing agreement is in place, the commercial contract is not valid, and it may never come into effect.” Whether the project closes remains to be seen. (But one year delay on a satellite project really is not a delay.)
But GOMSpace CEO Carsten Drachmann shared an interesting related tidbit. “We signed a commercial contract in December 2023, ahead of several other competitors for one of the most significant Marine Domain Awareness programs.” The competitors are unnamed. But considering the satellites are for VDES and RF monitoring, it’s not hard to guess who the competitors may have been. GOMSpace likely outbid Spire and AAC Clyde. Other potential competitors may have included Nanoavionics, Sternula (VDES satellite operator) and Unseenlabs (RF detection). Sternula and Unseenlabs seem less likely, since neither make satellites (Unseenlabs buys from GOMspace). But Nanoavionics has history supplying AIS and maritime surveillance satellites. Nanoavionics has grown into the largest CubeSat supplier, due its strong heritage, in-house components, and low cost. They shipped 21 CubeSats to customers in 2023. If GOMSpace beat Nanoavionics to win this deal, shareholders should be incredibly encouraged of GOMSpace prospects competing for other large projects.