Intuitive Machines (NASDAQ: LUNR) released 2024 annual financial and investor slides last week. As well reported, forth quarter revenue increased 79% year-over-year. The stock jumped 24% following the news. In 2024 and early 2025, Intuitive Machines raised unbelievable amounts of money through issuing stock and warrant redemptions. Intuitive Machines owes this to positive news surrounding IM-1 mission launch, the NASA Near Space Network (NSN) contract, and the space stock run up following Trump’s re-election. They now sit on $385 million as of March 10th. CEO Steve Altemus suggested Intuitive Machines pivot from the moon to profitable missions.
The rise in 4Q revenue was not unexpected. Intuitive Machine’s largest revenue source – the NASA OMES III contract awarded to a majority-owned subsidiary – only operated partially during 4Q 2023. Operating for the entirety of 4Q 2024 substantially contributed to quarterly year-over-year revenue gain.
CLPS mission profitability updates
During the forth quarter, Intuitive Machines wrote down $2.7 million in additional charges related to IM-2. Charges for IM-2 now total $38.7 million. However, potential final milestone payments total $15.8 million and are not accounted for since this is constrained revenue. CEO Altemus stated IM-2 captured “the majority of the outstanding $15.8 million of final success payments.” Conservatively assuming “majority” means “half,” Intuitive Machines stands to loose $30.8 million on IM-2. Had IM-2 been fully successful, the sold-out mission still stood to lose $22.9 million.
IM-3 in 4Q 2024 also incurred $2.6 million in additional loss charges. Intuitive Machines now stands losing between $14.6 and $24.3 million on IM-3. Final loss amount depends upon how successful the missions is and the amount of final milestone payments earned.
However, most significantly, IM-4 a not a loss contract. This suggests Intuitive Machines plans to operate IM-4 profitably, even if it fails and receives zero final milestone payments.
In the fourth quarter, Intuitive Machines recorded an additional $2.7 million in charges related to the IM-2 mission. This brings total loss charges to $38.7 million. Although potential final milestone payments could reach $15.8 million, these are treated as constrained revenue and not accounted for in loss charge calculations. CEO Altemus indicated that IM-2 achieved “the majority” of final milestone payments. If estimating “majority” means “half,” Intuitive Machines would incur a $30.8 million loss on IM-2. Even had IM-2 been fully successful, it still would have resulted in estimated $22.9 million loss.
The IM-3 mission also saw an additional $2.6 million in loss charges during the fourth quarter of 2024. The projected losses for IM-3 now range between $14.6 million and $24.3 million, with the final amount dependent on the mission’s ultimate success and the resulting milestone payments.
However, most significantly, IM-4 a not a loss contract. This suggests Intuitive Machines plans to operate IM-4 profitably, even in the event of mission failure and the absence of any final milestone payments.
IM-1 and IM-2 were arguably both failures. Yes, both achieved soft landings. But not right-side-up. Neither missions could deploy all payloads. The only commercial lander to date to fully succeed, of four companies attempting, is Firefly Aerospace’s Blue Ghost M1. Intuitive Machines recorded record commercial customer revenue for IM-2, don’t be surprised to see customers migrate to Firefly. Customers follow success and heritage. But even with no commercial customers, IM-4 still apparently stands to operate profitably. But caution: each IM-1, IM-2, and IM-3 incurred loss charges between contract procurement and launch. If IM-4’s costs similarly climb, this mission too could become a loss contract like IM-1, IM-2, and IM-3.
OMES-III margin improvement
OMES-III contract margins improved significantly quarter-on-quarter. During the first four quarters of operations, margins slipped to nearly 2%. Last quarter margins improved drastically. Intuitive Machines provided no explanation. Because Intuitive Machines’ agreement with JV partner KBR calls for 53% of profits distributed to KBR, the OMES III contract does not appear very material to Intuitive Machines reaching profitability. However, this contract enables Intuitive Machines to post large revenue growth, which appears related to its ability to raise cash.
Future business plans
The CLPS missions are generally not profitable. And Intuitive Machines has not proven ability to operate one successfully. OMES III is profitable, but at low margins. But the majority of profits flow to business partner KBR. Intuitive Machines’ NSN contract also appears unlikely to be profitable in the near term. The $150 million cost to procure and deploy the first five satellites to lunar orbit does not leave much room for profit.
But Intuitive Machines raised $295 million from stock sales and warrant redemptions in 2024. They raised more to-date in 2025. Intuitive Machines as of March 10th stands debt free with $385 million in cash. CEO Altemus stated, ““Now, with a fortress-like balance sheet, we’re seeking the highest-return opportunities, whether that’s through internal innovation or strategic acquisitions. Our proven technologies and expertise are propelling us beyond NASA and cislunar space, expanding our reach into new markets and customers.” Intuitive Machines expanding beyond lunar delivery services should be welcomed news. No CLPS commercial contractor has likely yet to complete a contract profitably. Ispace too lost a horde of money on its first attempt.
In its investor presentation, Intuitive Machines hinted one new business segments may be orbital transfer vehicles (OTVs). They apparently have an initial customer interested. The customer is unidentified, but clues point toward DOD. This business segment actually makes sense – Intuitive Machines already designed, built and proved engine operation on two separate missions to the moon. Using these engines to transport satellites across orbits, they already seem most the way there.
But presently, management has offered no articulable strategy to reach profitability. How they spend this $385 million will be a defining moment.