The satellite manufacturing industry is crowded. Jonathan McDowell in his 2023 space activities report counted 2911 “payloads” launched in 2023. These include ISS refueling missions and exploratory space probes, but predominately are satellites. China, Russia, Belarus, Iran, and North Korea accounted for 281 launches, which western companies don’t sell too. Subtracting 281 from 2911 leaves a 2023 market size ceiling of 2630 satellites.

manufacturer location predominant size major customers capacity per year
(current/under production)
AAC Clyde UK 3U – 16U 100
Endurosat Bulgaria 1U – 16U 120
ISISpace Netherlands 1U – 16U
Spire USA, UK 3U-6U NASA, Lacuna 200+
GOMspace Denmark 6U – 16U Startical, Unseenlabs, Indonesia 100
Nanoavionics Lithuania 1U – 120 kg Startical ~300
SFL Canada 3U – 24 kg HawkEye 360 18+
Planet Labs USA 3U – 150 kg 80 (3U), 24 (other)
Blue Canyon USA 3U – 150 kg DOD 85
Aerospacelab Netherlands 60-400 kg ESA, Swiss miltiary 40 → 540
LeoStella USA 50-150 kg Blacksky, Loft Orbital 40
Hanwha Korea 100-500 kg 48-96
Airbus France, USA 100-400 kg Oneweb, SDA, Loft Orbital 730
York Space Sytems USA 100-350 kg SDA 1000
Terran Orbital USA 14 kg – 1000 kg SDA, Rivada? 250 → 1000
Rocketlab USA 150-300 kg Globalstar, SDA
Apex USA 100-500 kg 50
SpaceX USA 260-800 kg NRO 2860
Thales Alenia Space France 600-1000 kg Iridium 84+
MDA Space Canada 600-1000 kg Telesat, Globalstar 400
Millennium Systems USA 600-1000 kg SDA 60 → 120 → 240
Ball Aerospace USA 200-2500 kg SDA

By above count, major manufactures collectively have (or soon will have) capacity to make 8067 satellites a year. This is underestimated because it does not include unknown capacity from ISISpace, Rocket Lab and Ball Aerospace. (If you have sources for these companies’ manufacturing capacity, please contact.) Additionally, this number ignores capacity of small players which claim capacity but have yet to engage in substantial sales or launches. (I.E. Sidus Space who claims satellite manufacturing capacity of 60-120 satellites a year, but has no commercial satellite sales.)

However, competition among satellite manufactures is actually more stiff. Starlink accounted for 1984 satellites launched in 2023. SpaceX builds these in-house leaving just 646 satellites for western manufactures to compete for.

By my count, in 2023 western-bloc aligned countries launched 285 CubeSats and picosats. Over half were made in-house. CubeSat satellite manufacturers made the remainder. Presently commercial manufacturers vie for likely fewer than 100 CubeSats yearly. Predominate manufactures are AAC Clyde, Endurosat, ISISpace, Spire, GOMspace and Nanoavonics who collectively have announced capacity >820 satellite per year. Thus six companies with combined capacity >800 compete for fewer than 100 builds. CubeSat manufacturing is extremely competitive. (However, importantly most CubeSats made in-house still utilize subsystems and components procured from AAC Clyde, ISISpace, GOMspace and others.)

Continuing the math, non-CubeSat manufacturers in 2023 competed for 646 – 285 = 361 satellites. Many of these are also built in-house, so the actual number is smaller. (Anyone done the analysis?) Putting into perspective, Terran Orbital took on debt expanding its capacity to 1000/year, a number 3x current market size. The if-you-build-it, they-will-come satellite manufacturing strategy has not worked out too well for Terran Orbital. Space News also recently (Sept 2024) reported on satellite manufactures reluctance to make mega factories.

Nonetheless, opportunity exists for upcoming satellite constellations not made in-house. Currently these are: