All companies have internal forecasts. And most public companies provide the public with financial guidance (here, financial guidance, plans, models, and announced goals are treated similarly). There is no standardized metric to grade public companies’ on offering and meeting guidance. Here we develop a metric and grade companies based upon guidance provided to the public.
Space stock forecast effort and accuracy report card
| Company | current CEO | Forecasts scored | Effort | Accuracy |
| iQPS | Shunsuke Onishi | 8 of 11 targets hit | B | B |
| Planet Labs | Will Marshall | 36 of 43 targets hit | C | A |
| AAC Clyde | Luis Gomes | 16 of 32 targets hit | B | D |
| Blacksky | Brian O’Toole | 13 of 20 targets hit; Understating since 2022 | C | D |
| GOMspace | Carsten Drachmann | 14 of 30 targets hit | F | F |
| Satellogic | Emiliano Kargieman | 1 of 16 targets hit; Quit forecasting in 2023 | F | F |
| Sidus Space | Carol Craig | 1 of 8 targets hit; No financial forecasting | F | F |
| Imagesat | Noam Segal | 1 of 5 targets hit; Quit forecasting in 2022 | F | F |
| Ascent Solar | Paul Warley | 0 of 1 targets hit | F | F |
| Satrec | Ee-Eul Kim | no forecasting | F | — |
Effort
Effort is a grade of a public company’s ability to provide wholesome forecasts, including temporally and addressing both top and bottom of the financial statement. We grade effort as outlined:
A For the past two and half years of forecasting, provides quarterly (or semiannual for foreign filers) and yearly forecasts covering for current fiscal year; a yearly forecast for the following year; and top line, bottom line, and production-related metric forecasts.
Subtract two grades for not providing current year forecast. Subtract one grade for not providing quarterly forecasts. Subtract one grade for not providing any type of meaningful forecast for the next fiscal year. And minus one grade each for not providing top line, bottom line, or production-related forecasts for the current year. (Examples of production related forecasts: “15 satellites in orbit by end of FY”, “300 units delivered”, etc.)
If a company looses grade(s) from lack of fulsome forecasting but initiates more complete forecasts, half of lost grades are restored until two and half years upon which 100% of lost grades restored.
Accuracy
Accuracy is graded by calculating the percentage of forecasts hit and using the following scale:
A 80%-100%
B 66.7%-79%
C 55%-66.6%
D 45%-55%
F <45%
However if a company meets 5 quarters of forecasts consecutively during any point within the preceding two and half years, one grade is subtracted for grossly understating expectations. (If you set the bar low enough, you can win every time. Who wants this? Investors instead want more accurate numbers even if the expense of slightly missing from time to time.
Relatedly, if a company beats its top-line or bottom-line forecast (for companies that provide ranges, lowest point in range) by more than 10% twice in any four consecutive forecasts (quarter, semesterly or yearly) any point in the past two and half years, subtract two grades for sandbagging.
Some companies claim their revenue come in “choppy” apparently to excuse themselves from forecasting revenue quarterly. However note a sliding scale so that even accuracy just two out of three times achieves a B grade.